Gold Analysis for Oct 27-31, 2025
Gold’s (XAU/USD) Technical Pullback…! Fed Decision and U.S.-China Talks to Dictate
Achiever Financials Ltd Weekly Gold Market Analysis
Published: October 29, 2025
By: The Analysis Team at Achiever Financials Ltd
As the final week of October unfolds, the gold market remains a focal point for investors navigating a landscape of monetary policy shifts, geopolitical uncertainties, and technical corrections. At Achiever Financials Ltd, our team has closely monitored the yellow metal’s trajectory following its parabolic rally to all-time highs above $4,380 earlier this month. Today, spot gold trades at approximately $3,966 per ounce, reflecting a 0.97% decline amid a resurgent U.S. dollar and renewed risk-on sentiment in global equities. This pullback, while sharp, appears technical in nature, with key support levels holding firm as market participants await pivotal events this week.
Market Overview: A Technical Pause Amid Correction
Gold’s recent ascent, fueled by safe-haven demand and expectations of aggressive Federal Reserve easing, has given way to profit-taking and a bearish reversal below the psychological $4,000 barrier. Our technical analysts note that XAU/USD has tumbled over $100 from its $4,004 perch, finding temporary footing around $3,895 – a level aligning with the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the mid-August uptrend. The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near the neutral 50 mark, signaling indecision but underscoring the metal’s resilience above deeper supports.
Key technical levels to watch this week include:
– Supports: $3,920 – $3,975 (immediate), $3,850 (50% Fibonacci), and $3,721 (61.8% Fibonacci).
– Resistances: $4,000 (psychological pivot), $4,064 (21-day SMA), and $4,129 (23.6% Fibonacci).
A sustained hold above $3,920 could pave the way for a rebound test of $4,000, while a breach below $3,850 risks accelerating downside toward $3,795 (50-day SMA). Trading volumes have moderated, suggesting the correction may be exaggerated by short-term speculators rather than a fundamental shift.
Fundamental Drivers: Fed Spotlight and Geopolitical Wildcards
The week’s narrative is dominated by the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy decision on Wednesday, where a 25-basis-point rate cut is widely anticipated. However, the devil lies in the details: a dovish tilt – evidenced by a lopsided voting split (e.g., 10-2 in favor) or Chair Jerome Powell’s emphasis on labor market vulnerabilities – could weaken the dollar and reignite gold’s bullish momentum. Conversely, hawkish undertones signaling fewer future cuts amid sticky inflation could bolster the greenback, capping gold’s recovery and pressuring it toward $3,800.
Compounding this are Thursday’s U.S.-China trade talks between Presidents Trump and Xi, which could ease global tensions and reduce safe-haven flows into gold if progress is announced. The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has throttled domestic data releases, including key CPI figures, forcing markets to lean on global cues like the Bank of Canada’s and European Central Bank’s decisions. Lower-than-expected U.S. inflation prints earlier this month have already lent tailwinds, but equity rebounds and a risk-on mood are tempering enthusiasm.
Broader factors, including persistent geopolitical risks in the Middle East and elections worldwide, continue to underpin gold’s long-term appeal as an inflation hedge. At Achiever Financials Ltd, we view these dynamics as supportive of consolidation rather than outright decline, with the metal’s average weekly price projected near $4,134.
Weekly Forecast: Volatility with Upside Bias
Our forecast for the week of October 27 – November 2 anticipates heightened volatility, with gold fluctuating between a weekly low of $3,894 and a high of $4,374. Near-term, expect choppy trading around $3,950 – $4,000 ahead of the Fed, potentially dipping to $3,920 on any pre-meeting jitters. A dovish Fed outcome could propel prices back above $4,000 by Thursday, targeting $4,110 – $4,180 if trade talks yield positives.
In a bearish tilt – triggered by hawkish Fed rhetoric or resolved U.S.-China frictions – we see risks of testing $3,850, though we deem this a buying opportunity given the uptrend’s intact structure. Overall, our team maintains a mildly bullish stance, with potential for 2-3% upside by week’s end if catalysts align.
| Date | Projected Low | Projected High | Key Event |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29 | $3,894 | $4,114 | Market Consolidation |
| Oct 30 | $3,920 | $4,000 | Fed Rate Decision |
| Oct 31 | $3,850 | $4,064 | U.S.-China Talks Prep |
| Nov 1 | $3,895 | $4,110 | Post-Fed Digestion |
| Nov 2 | $3,920 | $4,180 | Weekly Close |
Conclusion and Strategic Outlook
Gold’s current correction represents a healthy breather in an otherwise robust uptrend, offering savvy investors entry points amid event-driven swings. At Achiever Financials Ltd, we recommend accumulating on dips below $3,950 with stops at $3,850, targeting $4,100+ on a Fed-fueled rebound. Long-term holders should remain steadfast, as structural drivers like de-dollarization trends and central bank buying point to sustained strength into 2026.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading commodities involves significant risk.
