WTI Crude Oil Analysis 25-29 August
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices for the Last week of August.
Recent Context and Trends
Current Price Levels:
As of August 26, 2025, WTI crude oil prices were reported around $63.25–$64.71 per barrel, with some sources noting a daily increase of 1.65% but a monthly decline of 2.99% and a yearly drop of 16.41%.
Market Dynamics
Supply and Demand:
Global oil inventories are expected to build significantly in Q4 2025, with estimates of over 2 million barrels per day due to increased OPEC+ production. This could pressure prices downward.
Geopolitical Factors:
Waning hopes for an immediate Russia-Ukraine peace deal have supported a risk premium in oil prices, though prices remained relatively stable.
U.S. Inventories:
Recent U.S. crude oil inventory data showed fluctuations, with a drop of 6 million barrels for the week ending August 15, 2025, following a 3-million-barrel increase the prior week. These shifts have caused short-term price volatility.
Economic Factors:
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks at the Jackson Hole Symposium and a stronger U.S. dollar have influenced oil prices, with the dollar’s strength capping upside potential.
Technical Analysis:
WTI prices recently tested a support level near $60–$62, showing signs of a potential bullish reversal after forming a demand zone. Resistance is noted around $65.54–$66.40, with a possible target of $68.5 if upward momentum continues.
Weekly Forecast Considerations
Based on available data and trends, here’s a general outlook for WTI crude oil prices for the week:
Price Range:
Prices are likely to hover between $60 and $68 per barrel, with $62.86–$66.25 being a plausible range based on recent forecasts and technical levels.
Bearish Factors:
– Increased global oil supply from OPEC+ and non-OPEC+ countries, particularly U.S. shale production, could continue to weigh on prices.
– A stronger U.S. dollar and potential global economic slowdown, exacerbated by U.S.-led tariffs, may dampen demand.
– Forecasts suggest a decline in WTI prices to around $60–$66 per barrel in 2025 due to oversupply and trade disruptions.
Bullish Factors:
– Geopolitical tensions, such as ongoing Russia-Ukraine developments, could maintain a risk premium, supporting prices.
– A larger-than-expected draw in U.S. crude inventories could push prices toward the higher end of the range.
– Technical indicators suggest potential for a bullish reversal if prices break above the $65.54–$66.40 resistance.
Key Events to Watch:
– U.S. crude oil inventory data from the EIA, typically released on Wednesdays, could drive short-term price movements.
– Developments in U.S. trade policies or geopolitical negotiations, particularly involving Russia or OPEC+, may influence market sentiment.
– Federal Reserve policy updates or economic data releases could impact the U.S. dollar and, consequently, oil prices.
Note: Always conduct your own research, as market conditions can change rapidly. Technical ratings and sentiment are based on current data and may not reflect future movements.
