Gold Analysis for Sep 15-19, 2025

By the Achiever Financials Ltd Analysis Team

 

 

Overview

 

Gold (XAU/USD) has been on a remarkable upward trajectory, reaching an all-time high of $3,650 last week, driven by a confluence of macroeconomic factors and market sentiment. As we look ahead to the week of September 15-19, 2025, our analysis team at Achiever Financials Ltd expects gold to maintain its bullish momentum, supported by ongoing geopolitical tensions, anticipated U.S. Federal Reserve policy decisions, and robust central bank demand. However, potential volatility looms due to key economic events, particularly the Fed’s meeting on September 16-17. Below, we provide a detailed forecast and analysis to guide investors through the upcoming week.

Fundamental Analysis

Gold’s recent surge has been fueled by several key drivers, which are likely to persist into the next week:

1. U.S. Federal Reserve Policy Expectations: The market is pricing in an 88% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Fed’s September 16-17 meeting, with a 10% chance of a 50-basis-point cut, following weaker-than-expected U.S. labor data. A dovish Fed policy typically weakens the U.S. dollar and reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, supporting higher prices. The disappointing U.S. nonfarm payrolls data, showing a nearly four-year high unemployment rate of 4.3%, further bolsters expectations of monetary easing, which is bullish for gold.

2. Geopolitical and Trade Uncertainty: Ongoing global trade frictions, particularly U.S. tariff policies under President Trump, continue to drive safe-haven demand for gold. The potential for 10-25% import duties on bullion has led to significant physical gold movements into the U.S., with estimates of over 2,000 tonnes shipped recently. This trend underscores gold’s role as a hedge against policy uncertainty and supports our bullish outlook.

3. Central Bank and Investor Demand: Central banks have been aggressive buyers, with demand on the London OTC market reaching 108 tonnes in December 2024, a fivefold increase since 2022. This trend is expected to continue, with forecasts of 900 tonnes of central bank purchases in 2025. Additionally, declining U.S. interest rates are likely to boost gold ETF inflows, further supporting prices.

4. Inflation Expectations: Gold remains a preferred hedge against inflation, which is rising with the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) hitting 2.9% in August, the highest since February. Persistent inflationary pressures, combined with stagflation risks, enhance gold’s appeal as a store of value.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, gold’s price action remains strongly bullish. As of September 12, 2025, gold is trading at $3,642.37 per troy ounce, up 0.29% daily and 8.52% over the past month. Our analysis of key technical indicators suggests the following:

• Price Levels and Trends: Gold is trading near its all-time high of $3,650, with no immediate resistance above the current price of $3,642.50. The next psychological target is $3,700, a level UBS analysts project by mid-2026 but which could be tested sooner if bullish momentum persists. Support is identified at $3,511.75, aligning with the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near 80, indicating overbought conditions, which could lead to a short-term corrective pullback.

• Moving Averages: The 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) is projected to reach $3,684.61 by October 11, 2025, while the 200-day SMA is expected to hit $3,394.58, both signaling a continued upward trend. These moving averages confirm the medium-term bullish outlook.

• Key Levels to Watch:

  • Resistance: $3,700 (psychological), $3,720.03 (projected weekly high).

  • Support: $3,511.75 (20-day EMA), $3,500 (April 22 high).

• Candlestick Patterns: Recent price action shows strong bullish candles across multiple timeframes, reinforcing buyer dominance. However, a failure to break the $3,658 resistance last week suggests potential consolidation before the next leg up.

Weekly Forecast

Based on our combined fundamental and technical analysis, we expect gold prices to rise modestly over the next week, potentially reaching $3,697.68 by September 21, a 1.95% increase from the current level of $3,642.37. This forecast assumes continued dollar softness, sustained central bank buying, and no significant surprises from inflation data. However, we anticipate heightened volatility around the Fed’s meeting, which could trigger short-term fluctuations.

• Bullish Scenario: If the Fed signals a more aggressive rate cut (e.g., 50 basis points) or if geopolitical tensions escalate further, gold could break above $3,700 and target $3,720.03 by the end of the week. Strong central bank demand and ETF inflows would further support this move.

• Bearish Scenario: A stronger-than-expected U.S. dollar or unexpectedly hawkish Fed commentary could trigger a corrective pullback toward the $3,511.75 support level. Additionally, a de-escalation of geopolitical tensions might reduce safe-haven demand, capping upside potential.

• Most Likely Outcome: We predict gold will consolidate around $3,650-$3,670 early in the week, with a breakout above $3,700 possible if Fed policy expectations remain dovish. Investors should monitor the U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and Consumer Inflation Expectations data on September 19, as these could influence market sentiment.

Investment Strategy

Given the bullish outlook, our team recommends a buy-on-dips strategy for gold investors. Key entry points include pullbacks to $3,511.75 or $3,500, where strong support is expected. Traders should set stop-loss orders below $3,400 to manage downside risk, with take-profit targets at $3,700 and $3,720.

For long-term investors, gold remains a compelling hedge against inflation, currency depreciation, and geopolitical risks. However, we advise consulting a financial advisor before making investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly.

Conclusion

The week of September 15-19, 2025, presents a favourable environment for gold, driven by expectations of a dovish Fed, persistent geopolitical uncertainties, and strong central bank demand. While short-term volatility is possible, particularly around the Fed’s meeting, the medium-term trend remains firmly bullish. At Achiever Financials Ltd, we believe gold will continue to shine as a safe-haven asset, with a potential test of $3,700 imminent. Stay vigilant, monitor key economic data, and seize opportunities to capitalise on gold’s upward trajectory.

Disclaimer: This forecast is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investors should conduct thorough research and consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.